Can Reform channel the march of the mums into a movement that can govern?

Musings from the Reform Conference, Birmingham NEC, 5th September

On Friday morning, I boarded the train to Birmingham to attend the Reform Conference. Part of our role is to keep track of the wider political landscape so we can understand where potential policy shifts may come from and ensure children’s voices are heard. The Reform Party has been growing in support including among women and mothers, so I attended to observe and better understand this development. I was not alone, others colleagues were there including Lauren from ECEC. 

Arriving at the NEC felt like walking into a reunion concert. There was a buzz of excitement, people dressed up in turquoise and pale blue — the new Reform colours. Security was brisk, the queues long, and the space itself resembled an aircraft hangar, but the mood was good-humoured and energetic.

The day was opened by Dr David Bull, the party chairman, an experienced broadcaster whose easy style, humour and confidence without notes kept the audience hooked. Assisted by Jeremy Kyle, who roamed the hall engaging attendees, the tone was set:

Reform wants to be seen as the voice of “ordinary people” who feel ignored, fearful for the country’s future, and anxious for their children’s prospects.

The concerns voiced — particularly by women — centred on two things: the insecurity of their children’s future (jobs, housing, family stability) and “ideological interference” in education, where they feel children are being taught values that conflict with their own. These worries underpin Reform’s growing appeal to mothers, a demographic that polling shows is swinging towards the party more strongly than any other group.

Nigel Farage appeared earlier than expected. Hoarse but commanding, he spoke fluently and with data to hand, playing to the crowd like a seasoned frontman. His themes were familiar — law and order, illegal migration, distrust of net zero policies, economic decline, inflation, ECHR, and national debt but his delivery resonated, strengthening the sense that Reform is not just angry with the current government, but particularly with the Conservatives, whom they hold responsible for “unravelling Britain’s infrastructure.” As with any conference there were no details of ‘the plan’ that he says they are developing and the only mantra they used to describe their plan was detain and deport illegal migrants.

When Reform do put forward their plan, it is imperative that early childhood education and care feature as a clear priority in their manifesto. The party showcased its female representatives — Laura Anne Jones from the Welsh Senedd, Leader of Kent, Councillor Linden Kemkaran,  and Westminster Councillor Laila Cunningham, all more convincing than the higher-profile defectors Andrea Jenkyns and Nadine Dorries. Alongside them, there was clear evidence that Reform is attracting women in growing numbers.

(Image source BBC – PA Media)

Polling from More in Common, presented by Luke Tryl, highlights a remarkable swing. Since the general election, Reform has gained 14% among women while Labour has lost 12%. The change is sharpest among older groups: Reform now tops the polls with Gen X (45–60) and leads among Boomers (61–75). Even among the over-75s, where the Conservatives still dominate, Reform attracts more women than Labour, the Lib Dems and Greens combined.

Younger women are also drifting towards Reform. Among Millennials (29–44), one in five back Reform, putting them just behind Labour. Even Gen Z (18–28) has Reform at 19% , only four points behind Labour. Why? Because women are telling a story of frustration.

• They are more likely than men to believe Britain is on the wrong track (only one in six Gen X women think otherwise).
• They report feeling angrier, lonelier, and more stressed, with 62% of Boomer women saying life feels more dangerous.
• Many expected to wind down in midlife, but instead they are juggling elderly parents, struggling to support children into housing, and feeling let down by Labour.

The single biggest policy driver is illegal migration balanced against an increasing welfare bill. Support among women for temporary accommodation for asylum seekers has collapsed from 36% in 2003 to just 18% today. Two-thirds of Boomer and 75+ women believe Britain prioritises immigrants over its own people. The sense of injustice is fuelling local protests, often led by mothers. History shows the political potency of maternal protest — from Belfast to Chechnya to Argentina’s Mothers of the Disappeared.

The focus on local councils was also very evident. In May, Reform won 677 seats (41% of the total) and gained control of 10 councils. Many are leaders of big councils like Kent. London is an outlier with the fewest Reform councillors, but Midlands and the North are solidly represented. The councillors were in agreement of the failure of both Labour and Tory councils, alleged corruption but also a national government loading them to more statutory duties and dealing with increased needs such as SEND with no money. It had a bit of an EY scenario to it!

Law and order is the other defining theme. Reform’s message to “police the streets, not the tweets” lands in a context where magistrates’ courts have been shut, 20,000 police officers cut, and prison spaces remain scarce. It also points to a dystopian world, where laws are shaped to serve an ideology never approved by the electorate, leaving ordinary Britons silenced.

It was considered one of the reasons for an increase in protests.  Add to that economic strain: rising energy bills, small businesses squeezed, farmers hit by inheritance tax changes, fisheries struggling, and fury at Rachel from Accounts and the disastrous budget and the frittering of taxpayer’s money and the projected Net Zero costs of £800 billion foisted on a population already paying the highest utility bills in Europe.

Yet Reform’s Achilles heel remains Nigel Farage’s close friendship with Donald Trump. Scepticism also lingers over their stance on Ukraine and the costs of renewables. The challenge is whether Reform can move beyond being a protest party and translate momentum into governing credibility.

What’s clear is that voting volatility is reshaping British politics. Women, long assumed to be more cautious voters, are now driving one of the most disruptive political shifts of our time. Reform is rising on their anger, their disaffection, and their search for hope.

The question is not whether Reform can disrupt. That’s Nigel Farage’s trademark. The real question is whether Reform can channel the march of the mums into a movement that can govern.